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6bafd0a09b
* Fix high-freq data name from `yahoo_cn_1min` to `cn_data_1min`
* re-format example data names using `qlib_{region}_{feq}`, e.g. qlib_cn_1d
* re-format example data names using `{region}_{feq}`, e.g. us_1d and cn_1min
* keep using for 1day data, and change 1min data to
69 lines
8.8 KiB
Markdown
69 lines
8.8 KiB
Markdown
# Benchmarks Performance
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This page lists a batch of methods designed for alpha seeking. Each method tries to give scores/predictions for all stocks each day(e.g. forecasting the future excess return of stocks). The scores/predictions of the models will be used as the mined alpha. Investing in stocks with higher scores is expected to yield more profit.
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The alpha is evaluated in two ways.
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1. The correlation between the alpha and future return.
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1. Constructing portfolio based on the alpha and evaluating the final total return.
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Here are the results of each benchmark model running on Qlib's `Alpha360` and `Alpha158` dataset with China's A shared-stock & CSI300 data respectively. The values of each metric are the mean and std calculated based on 20 runs with different random seeds.
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The numbers shown below demonstrate the performance of the entire `workflow` of each model. We will update the `workflow` as well as models in the near future for better results.
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<!--
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> If you need to reproduce the results below, please use the **v1** dataset: `python scripts/get_data.py qlib_data --target_dir ~/.qlib/qlib_data/cn_data --region cn --version v1`
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>
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> In the new version of qlib, the default dataset is **v2**. Since the data is collected from the YahooFinance API (which is not very stable), the results of *v2* and *v1* may differ -->
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> NOTE:
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> The backtest start from 0.8.0 is quite different from previous version. Please check out the changelog for the difference.
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## Alpha158 dataset
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| Model Name | Dataset | IC | ICIR | Rank IC | Rank ICIR | Annualized Return | Information Ratio | Max Drawdown |
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|------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------------|-------------------|--------------|
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| TCN(Shaojie Bai, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0275±0.00 | 0.2157±0.01 | 0.0411±0.00 | 0.3379±0.01 | 0.0190±0.02 | 0.2887±0.27 | -0.1202±0.03 |
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| TabNet(Sercan O. Arik, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0204±0.01 | 0.1554±0.07 | 0.0333±0.00 | 0.2552±0.05 | 0.0227±0.04 | 0.3676±0.54 | -0.1089±0.08 |
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| Transformer(Ashish Vaswani, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0264±0.00 | 0.2053±0.02 | 0.0407±0.00 | 0.3273±0.02 | 0.0273±0.02 | 0.3970±0.26 | -0.1101±0.02 |
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| GRU(Kyunghyun Cho, et al.) | Alpha158(with selected 20 features) | 0.0315±0.00 | 0.2450±0.04 | 0.0428±0.00 | 0.3440±0.03 | 0.0344±0.02 | 0.5160±0.25 | -0.1017±0.02 |
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| LSTM(Sepp Hochreiter, et al.) | Alpha158(with selected 20 features) | 0.0318±0.00 | 0.2367±0.04 | 0.0435±0.00 | 0.3389±0.03 | 0.0381±0.03 | 0.5561±0.46 | -0.1207±0.04 |
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| Localformer(Juyong Jiang, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0356±0.00 | 0.2756±0.03 | 0.0468±0.00 | 0.3784±0.03 | 0.0438±0.02 | 0.6600±0.33 | -0.0952±0.02 |
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| SFM(Liheng Zhang, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0379±0.00 | 0.2959±0.04 | 0.0464±0.00 | 0.3825±0.04 | 0.0465±0.02 | 0.5672±0.29 | -0.1282±0.03 |
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| ALSTM (Yao Qin, et al.) | Alpha158(with selected 20 features) | 0.0362±0.01 | 0.2789±0.06 | 0.0463±0.01 | 0.3661±0.05 | 0.0470±0.03 | 0.6992±0.47 | -0.1072±0.03 |
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| GATs (Petar Velickovic, et al.) | Alpha158(with selected 20 features) | 0.0349±0.00 | 0.2511±0.01 | 0.0462±0.00 | 0.3564±0.01 | 0.0497±0.01 | 0.7338±0.19 | -0.0777±0.02 |
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| TRA(Hengxu Lin, et al.) | Alpha158(with selected 20 features) | 0.0404±0.00 | 0.3197±0.05 | 0.0490±0.00 | 0.4047±0.04 | 0.0649±0.02 | 1.0091±0.30 | -0.0860±0.02 |
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| Linear | Alpha158 | 0.0397±0.00 | 0.3000±0.00 | 0.0472±0.00 | 0.3531±0.00 | 0.0692±0.00 | 0.9209±0.00 | -0.1509±0.00 |
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| TRA(Hengxu Lin, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0440±0.00 | 0.3535±0.05 | 0.0540±0.00 | 0.4451±0.03 | 0.0718±0.02 | 1.0835±0.35 | -0.0760±0.02 |
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| CatBoost(Liudmila Prokhorenkova, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0481±0.00 | 0.3366±0.00 | 0.0454±0.00 | 0.3311±0.00 | 0.0765±0.00 | 0.8032±0.01 | -0.1092±0.00 |
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| XGBoost(Tianqi Chen, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0498±0.00 | 0.3779±0.00 | 0.0505±0.00 | 0.4131±0.00 | 0.0780±0.00 | 0.9070±0.00 | -0.1168±0.00 |
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| TFT (Bryan Lim, et al.) | Alpha158(with selected 20 features) | 0.0358±0.00 | 0.2160±0.03 | 0.0116±0.01 | 0.0720±0.03 | 0.0847±0.02 | 0.8131±0.19 | -0.1824±0.03 |
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| MLP | Alpha158 | 0.0376±0.00 | 0.2846±0.02 | 0.0429±0.00 | 0.3220±0.01 | 0.0895±0.02 | 1.1408±0.23 | -0.1103±0.02 |
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| LightGBM(Guolin Ke, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0448±0.00 | 0.3660±0.00 | 0.0469±0.00 | 0.3877±0.00 | 0.0901±0.00 | 1.0164±0.00 | -0.1038±0.00 |
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| DoubleEnsemble(Chuheng Zhang, et al.) | Alpha158 | 0.0544±0.00 | 0.4340±0.00 | 0.0523±0.00 | 0.4284±0.01 | 0.1168±0.01 | 1.3384±0.12 | -0.1036±0.01 |
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## Alpha360 dataset
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| Model Name | Dataset | IC | ICIR | Rank IC | Rank ICIR | Annualized Return | Information Ratio | Max Drawdown |
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|-------------------------------------------|----------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------------|-------------------|--------------|
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| Transformer(Ashish Vaswani, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0114±0.00 | 0.0716±0.03 | 0.0327±0.00 | 0.2248±0.02 | -0.0270±0.03 | -0.3378±0.37 | -0.1653±0.05 |
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| TabNet(Sercan O. Arik, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0099±0.00 | 0.0593±0.00 | 0.0290±0.00 | 0.1887±0.00 | -0.0369±0.00 | -0.3892±0.00 | -0.2145±0.00 |
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| MLP | Alpha360 | 0.0273±0.00 | 0.1870±0.02 | 0.0396±0.00 | 0.2910±0.02 | 0.0029±0.02 | 0.0274±0.23 | -0.1385±0.03 |
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| Localformer(Juyong Jiang, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0404±0.00 | 0.2932±0.04 | 0.0542±0.00 | 0.4110±0.03 | 0.0246±0.02 | 0.3211±0.21 | -0.1095±0.02 |
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| CatBoost((Liudmila Prokhorenkova, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0378±0.00 | 0.2714±0.00 | 0.0467±0.00 | 0.3659±0.00 | 0.0292±0.00 | 0.3781±0.00 | -0.0862±0.00 |
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| XGBoost(Tianqi Chen, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0394±0.00 | 0.2909±0.00 | 0.0448±0.00 | 0.3679±0.00 | 0.0344±0.00 | 0.4527±0.02 | -0.1004±0.00 |
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| DoubleEnsemble(Chuheng Zhang, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0404±0.00 | 0.3023±0.00 | 0.0495±0.00 | 0.3898±0.00 | 0.0468±0.01 | 0.6302±0.20 | -0.0860±0.01 |
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| LightGBM(Guolin Ke, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0400±0.00 | 0.3037±0.00 | 0.0499±0.00 | 0.4042±0.00 | 0.0558±0.00 | 0.7632±0.00 | -0.0659±0.00 |
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| TCN(Shaojie Bai, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0441±0.00 | 0.3301±0.02 | 0.0519±0.00 | 0.4130±0.01 | 0.0604±0.02 | 0.8295±0.34 | -0.1018±0.03 |
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| ALSTM (Yao Qin, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0497±0.00 | 0.3829±0.04 | 0.0599±0.00 | 0.4736±0.03 | 0.0626±0.02 | 0.8651±0.31 | -0.0994±0.03 |
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| LSTM(Sepp Hochreiter, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0448±0.00 | 0.3474±0.04 | 0.0549±0.00 | 0.4366±0.03 | 0.0647±0.03 | 0.8963±0.39 | -0.0875±0.02 |
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| ADD | Alpha360 | 0.0430±0.00 | 0.3188±0.04 | 0.0559±0.00 | 0.4301±0.03 | 0.0667±0.02 | 0.8992±0.34 | -0.0855±0.02 |
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| GRU(Kyunghyun Cho, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0493±0.00 | 0.3772±0.04 | 0.0584±0.00 | 0.4638±0.03 | 0.0720±0.02 | 0.9730±0.33 | -0.0821±0.02 |
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| AdaRNN(Yuntao Du, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0464±0.01 | 0.3619±0.08 | 0.0539±0.01 | 0.4287±0.06 | 0.0753±0.03 | 1.0200±0.40 | -0.0936±0.03 |
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| GATs (Petar Velickovic, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0476±0.00 | 0.3508±0.02 | 0.0598±0.00 | 0.4604±0.01 | 0.0824±0.02 | 1.1079±0.26 | -0.0894±0.03 |
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| TCTS(Xueqing Wu, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0508±0.00 | 0.3931±0.04 | 0.0599±0.00 | 0.4756±0.03 | 0.0893±0.03 | 1.2256±0.36 | -0.0857±0.02 |
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| TRA(Hengxu Lin, et al.) | Alpha360 | 0.0485±0.00 | 0.3787±0.03 | 0.0587±0.00 | 0.4756±0.03 | 0.0920±0.03 | 1.2789±0.42 | -0.0834±0.02 |
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- The selected 20 features are based on the feature importance of a lightgbm-based model.
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- The base model of DoubleEnsemble is LGBM.
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- The base model of TCTS is GRU.
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