Market Regime Classification Framework
A comprehensive market state identification system for quantitative trading strategy matching
1. Classification Dimensions Overview
Market state identification requires analysis across multiple dimensions:
| Dimension |
Sub-dimensions |
Description |
| Trend |
Direction, Strength |
Determine market movement direction and momentum |
| Volatility |
Amplitude, Frequency |
Measure price fluctuation characteristics |
| Structure |
Pattern, Phase |
Identify market structure and cycle position |
2. Primary Classification (5 Categories)
2.1 Classification Overview
| Code |
Name |
Key Characteristics |
Suitable Strategies |
TREND_UP |
Uptrend |
Higher highs & higher lows |
Trend following, Breakout |
TREND_DOWN |
Downtrend |
Lower highs & lower lows |
Trend following, Short selling |
RANGE |
Range-bound |
Price oscillates within bounds |
Grid trading, Mean reversion |
TRANSITION |
Transition |
Uncertain directional period |
Wait & watch, Small positions |
BREAKOUT |
Breakout |
Price breaks key levels |
Breakout trading |
2.2 Identification Indicators
- ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures trend strength
- ADX > 25: Clear trend exists
- ADX < 20: Range-bound market
- EMA Alignment: Determines trend direction
- EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200: Bullish alignment
- EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA200: Bearish alignment
3. Secondary Classification (18 Sub-categories)
3.1 Uptrend Sub-categories (5 Types)
| Code |
Name |
Technical Features |
Quantitative Indicators |
TU_STRONG_LOW_VOL |
Strong Uptrend · Low Vol |
Steady rise, shallow pullbacks |
ADX>40, ATR%<2%, Pullback<38.2% |
TU_STRONG_HIGH_VOL |
Strong Uptrend · High Vol |
Rapid surge, high volatility |
ADX>40, ATR%>4%, MACD histogram expanding |
TU_WEAK_CHOPPY |
Weak Uptrend · Choppy |
Two steps forward, one back |
ADX 20-30, RSI oscillating 50-70 |
TU_PARABOLIC |
Parabolic Acceleration |
Exponential price increase |
Price far from MA, RSI>80, Volume surge |
TU_EXHAUSTION |
Uptrend Exhaustion |
New highs but weakening momentum |
Price new high + MACD/RSI divergence |
Strategy Matching:
- Strong Low Vol: Heavy trend following, pyramid adding
- Strong High Vol: Medium position, trailing stops
- Weak Choppy: Light swing trading
- Parabolic: Cautious, prepare to exit
- Exhaustion: Reduce positions, prepare for reversal
3.2 Downtrend Sub-categories (5 Types)
| Code |
Name |
Technical Features |
Quantitative Indicators |
TD_STRONG_LOW_VOL |
Strong Downtrend · Low Vol |
Steady decline, weak bounces |
ADX>40, ATR%<2%, Bounce<38.2% |
TD_STRONG_HIGH_VOL |
Strong Downtrend · High Vol |
Panic selling, wild swings |
ADX>40, ATR%>5%, VIX spike |
TD_WEAK_CHOPPY |
Weak Downtrend · Choppy |
Grinding lower with bounces |
ADX 20-30, RSI oscillating 30-50 |
TD_CAPITULATION |
Capitulation |
High volume crash, extreme fear |
RSI<20, Volume>3x average |
TD_EXHAUSTION |
Downtrend Exhaustion |
New lows but selling pressure fading |
Price new low + MACD/RSI divergence |
Strategy Matching:
- Strong Low Vol: Short trend following
- Strong High Vol: Stay flat or light hedge
- Weak Choppy: Wait for stabilization
- Capitulation: Light bottom fishing possible
- Exhaustion: Gradually build long positions
3.3 Range Sub-categories (4 Types)
| Code |
Name |
Technical Features |
Quantitative Indicators |
RG_TIGHT_LOW_VOL |
Tight Range · Low Vol |
Extreme contraction, coiling |
BB Width<2%, ATR at new lows |
RG_TIGHT_HIGH_VOL |
Tight Range · High Vol |
Violent swings within range |
BB Width<3%, ATR%>3% |
RG_WIDE_LOW_VOL |
Wide Range · Low Vol |
Large range, slow movement |
BB Width>5%, ATR%<2% |
RG_WIDE_HIGH_VOL |
Wide Range · High Vol |
Large range, fast movement |
BB Width>5%, ATR%>3% |
Strategy Matching:
- Tight Low Vol: Dense grid, wait for breakout
- Tight High Vol: Fast grid, small frequent profits
- Wide Low Vol: Sparse grid, patient holding
- Wide High Vol: Swing trading, high profit targets
3.4 Transition (2 Types)
| Code |
Name |
Technical Features |
Quantitative Indicators |
TR_BOTTOM_FORMING |
Bottom Forming |
Decline slowing, testing support |
Price stabilizing + Volume drying up + RSI divergence |
TR_TOP_FORMING |
Top Forming |
Rally slowing, testing resistance |
Price stalling + Volume drying up + RSI divergence |
3.5 Breakout (2 Types)
| Code |
Name |
Technical Features |
Quantitative Indicators |
BK_UPWARD |
Upward Breakout |
Breaking resistance with volume |
Price>Previous high, Volume>2x, BB breakout |
BK_DOWNWARD |
Downward Breakout |
Breaking support with volume |
Price<Previous low, Volume>2x, BB breakdown |
4. Tertiary Classification (36 Ultra-fine Categories)
4.1 Trend Phase Classification
Uptrend lifecycle consists of 5 phases:
| Phase Code |
Name |
Description |
Quantitative Criteria |
TU_S1_INITIATION |
Uptrend Initiation |
First break above MA or previous high |
MACD bullish cross, Price>EMA20 |
TU_S2_ACCELERATION |
Uptrend Acceleration |
Momentum increasing, slope steepening |
MACD histogram expanding, ADX rising |
TU_S3_MAIN_WAVE |
Main Wave |
Sustained rise, shallow pullbacks |
RSI 60-80, Pullbacks hold EMA20 |
TU_S4_EXHAUSTION |
Uptrend Exhaustion |
Slowing momentum, divergences appearing |
RSI divergence, MACD divergence |
TU_S5_REVERSAL |
Trend Reversal |
Breakdown, trend ending |
Break below EMA50, MACD bearish cross |
Downtrend phases follow same pattern: TD_S1 through TD_S5
4.2 Range Position Classification
| Position Code |
Name |
Description |
Strategy Suggestion |
RG_UPPER |
Upper Range |
Price near resistance |
Bias toward short |
RG_MIDDLE |
Mid Range |
Price near middle band |
Neutral grid trading |
RG_LOWER |
Lower Range |
Price near support |
Bias toward long |
RG_SQUEEZE |
Squeeze Pattern |
Highs and lows converging |
Wait for direction |
RG_EXPAND |
Expanding Pattern |
Highs and lows diverging |
Boundary reversal |
4.3 Volatility Grades
| Code |
Name |
ATR% |
BB Width |
Strategy Suggestion |
VOL_EXTREME_LOW |
Extreme Low Vol |
<1% |
<1.5% |
Option selling |
VOL_LOW |
Low Volatility |
1-2% |
1.5-2.5% |
Grid / Mean reversion |
VOL_NORMAL |
Normal Volatility |
2-3% |
2.5-4% |
Trend following |
VOL_HIGH |
High Volatility |
3-5% |
4-6% |
Momentum / Breakout |
VOL_EXTREME_HIGH |
Extreme High Vol |
>5% |
>6% |
Reduce exposure / Hedge |
5. Complete State Encoding Rules
5.1 Encoding Format
5.2 Encoding Examples
| Full Code |
Interpretation |
TU_LV_S3_M |
Uptrend_LowVol_MainWave_Middle |
TD_HV_S2_L |
Downtrend_HighVol_Acceleration_Lower |
RG_NV_SQ_U |
Range_NormalVol_Squeeze_Upper |
BK_HV_UP_M |
Breakout_HighVol_Upward_Middle |
6. Core Identification Indicators
6.1 Trend Indicators
| Indicator |
Calculation |
Criteria |
| ADX |
14-period Average Directional Index |
>40 Strong, 25-40 Medium, <25 Weak/Range |
| Trend Score |
Composite EMA/MACD/Price structure |
-100 to +100, Positive=Bullish, Negative=Bearish |
| EMA Alignment |
Relative position of EMA20/50/200 |
Bullish/Bearish/Mixed alignment |
6.2 Volatility Indicators
| Indicator |
Calculation |
Purpose |
| ATR Percent |
ATR(14) / Current Price × 100% |
Measure relative volatility |
| BB Width |
(Upper - Lower) / Middle × 100% |
Measure price range |
| Volatility Rank |
Current vol percentile in history |
Determine vol level |
6.3 Momentum Indicators
| Indicator |
Calculation |
Criteria |
| RSI |
14-period Relative Strength Index |
>70 Overbought, <30 Oversold, 50 Neutral |
| MACD Histogram |
MACD - Signal |
Positive=Bullish momentum, Negative=Bearish |
| Momentum Score |
Composite RSI/MACD/Volume |
Measure current momentum |
6.4 Structure Indicators
| Indicator |
Description |
Purpose |
| Swing Structure |
HH/HL/LH/LL sequence |
Determine trend structure |
| Support/Resistance |
Key price levels |
Define trading range |
| Volume Profile |
Volume-price relationship |
Validate price action |
7. Strategy Matching Matrix
7.1 Regime-Strategy Mapping
| Regime Type |
Recommended Strategy |
Position Size |
Stop Loss |
| Strong Uptrend · Low Vol |
Trend following + Pyramid |
60-80% |
ATR×2 |
| Strong Uptrend · High Vol |
Momentum + Quick profit |
40-60% |
ATR×1.5 |
| Uptrend Exhaustion |
Reduce + Reversal short |
20-30% |
Previous high |
| Panic Decline |
Wait or light bottom fish |
10-20% |
Wide stop |
| Low Vol Range |
Grid trading |
50-70% |
Range boundary |
| High Vol Range |
Swing trading |
30-50% |
ATR×2 |
| Squeeze Pattern |
Wait for breakout |
10-20% |
- |
| Upward Breakout |
Chase + Add on pullback |
50-70% |
Breakout level |
| Bottom Formation |
Scale in gradually |
20-40% |
New low |
7.2 Grid Strategy Parameter Matching
| Range Type |
Grid Levels |
Grid Spacing |
Other Parameters |
| Tight Low Vol |
30-50 levels |
Small spacing |
Enable Maker Only |
| Tight High Vol |
15-25 levels |
Small spacing |
Fast execution mode |
| Wide Low Vol |
10-20 levels |
Large spacing |
Patient execution |
| Wide High Vol |
15-25 levels |
Large spacing |
High profit targets |
| Squeeze Pattern |
Pause grid |
- |
Wait for breakout signal |
| Upper Range |
Short bias |
Medium |
Increase sell weight |
| Lower Range |
Long bias |
Medium |
Increase buy weight |
8. Real-time Monitoring Guidelines
8.1 State Transition Triggers
| Current State |
Trigger Condition |
Transitions To |
| Range |
Price breakout + Volume + ADX rising |
Breakout |
| Uptrend |
RSI divergence + Volume decline |
Exhaustion |
| Downtrend |
RSI divergence + Volume decline |
Exhaustion |
| Breakout |
Failed breakout, price returns |
Range |
| Exhaustion |
Confirmed reversal breakout |
Opposite trend |
8.2 Risk Control Rules
| Regime State |
Max Position |
Risk Per Trade |
Special Rules |
| Strong Trend |
80% |
2% |
Adding allowed |
| Weak Trend |
50% |
1.5% |
No adding |
| Range |
60% |
1% |
Diversified holding |
| Transition |
30% |
1% |
Reduce activity |
| High Volatility |
40% |
0.5% |
Wide stops |
9. Appendix
9.1 Abbreviation Reference
| Abbrev |
Full Form |
Description |
| TU |
Trend Up |
Upward trend |
| TD |
Trend Down |
Downward trend |
| RG |
Range |
Range-bound market |
| TR |
Transition |
Trend transition |
| BK |
Breakout |
Breakout pattern |
| LV |
Low Volatility |
Low volatility regime |
| HV |
High Volatility |
High volatility regime |
| NV |
Normal Volatility |
Normal volatility regime |
| XLV |
Extreme Low Vol |
Extremely low volatility |
| XHV |
Extreme High Vol |
Extremely high volatility |
9.2 Document Information
- Version: v1.0
- Created: January 2026
- Applicable: Cryptocurrency, Forex, Stocks, and other financial markets
This document is designed for market state identification and strategy matching in quantitative trading systems