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qlib/qlib/contrib/model/double_ensemble.py
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---------

Co-authored-by: Young <afe.young@gmail.com>
2024-12-17 11:30:06 +08:00

278 lines
12 KiB
Python

# Copyright (c) Microsoft Corporation.
# Licensed under the MIT License.
import lightgbm as lgb
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from typing import Text, Union
from ...model.base import Model
from ...data.dataset import DatasetH
from ...data.dataset.handler import DataHandlerLP
from ...model.interpret.base import FeatureInt
from ...log import get_module_logger
class DEnsembleModel(Model, FeatureInt):
"""Double Ensemble Model"""
def __init__(
self,
base_model="gbm",
loss="mse",
num_models=6,
enable_sr=True,
enable_fs=True,
alpha1=1.0,
alpha2=1.0,
bins_sr=10,
bins_fs=5,
decay=None,
sample_ratios=None,
sub_weights=None,
epochs=100,
early_stopping_rounds=None,
**kwargs,
):
self.base_model = base_model # "gbm" or "mlp", specifically, we use lgbm for "gbm"
self.num_models = num_models # the number of sub-models
self.enable_sr = enable_sr
self.enable_fs = enable_fs
self.alpha1 = alpha1
self.alpha2 = alpha2
self.bins_sr = bins_sr
self.bins_fs = bins_fs
self.decay = decay
if sample_ratios is None: # the default values for sample_ratios
sample_ratios = [0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4]
if sub_weights is None: # the default values for sub_weights
sub_weights = [1] * self.num_models
if not len(sample_ratios) == bins_fs:
raise ValueError("The length of sample_ratios should be equal to bins_fs.")
self.sample_ratios = sample_ratios
if not len(sub_weights) == num_models:
raise ValueError("The length of sub_weights should be equal to num_models.")
self.sub_weights = sub_weights
self.epochs = epochs
self.logger = get_module_logger("DEnsembleModel")
self.logger.info("Double Ensemble Model...")
self.ensemble = [] # the current ensemble model, a list contains all the sub-models
self.sub_features = [] # the features for each sub model in the form of pandas.Index
self.params = {"objective": loss}
self.params.update(kwargs)
self.loss = loss
self.early_stopping_rounds = early_stopping_rounds
def fit(self, dataset: DatasetH):
df_train, df_valid = dataset.prepare(
["train", "valid"], col_set=["feature", "label"], data_key=DataHandlerLP.DK_L
)
if df_train.empty or df_valid.empty:
raise ValueError("Empty data from dataset, please check your dataset config.")
x_train, y_train = df_train["feature"], df_train["label"]
# initialize the sample weights
N, F = x_train.shape
weights = pd.Series(np.ones(N, dtype=float))
# initialize the features
features = x_train.columns
pred_sub = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros((N, self.num_models), dtype=float), index=x_train.index)
# train sub-models
for k in range(self.num_models):
self.sub_features.append(features)
self.logger.info("Training sub-model: ({}/{})".format(k + 1, self.num_models))
model_k = self.train_submodel(df_train, df_valid, weights, features)
self.ensemble.append(model_k)
# no further sample re-weight and feature selection needed for the last sub-model
if k + 1 == self.num_models:
break
self.logger.info("Retrieving loss curve and loss values...")
loss_curve = self.retrieve_loss_curve(model_k, df_train, features)
pred_k = self.predict_sub(model_k, df_train, features)
pred_sub.iloc[:, k] = pred_k
pred_ensemble = (pred_sub.iloc[:, : k + 1] * self.sub_weights[0 : k + 1]).sum(axis=1) / np.sum(
self.sub_weights[0 : k + 1]
)
loss_values = pd.Series(self.get_loss(y_train.values.squeeze(), pred_ensemble.values))
if self.enable_sr:
self.logger.info("Sample re-weighting...")
weights = self.sample_reweight(loss_curve, loss_values, k + 1)
if self.enable_fs:
self.logger.info("Feature selection...")
features = self.feature_selection(df_train, loss_values)
def train_submodel(self, df_train, df_valid, weights, features):
dtrain, dvalid = self._prepare_data_gbm(df_train, df_valid, weights, features)
evals_result = dict()
callbacks = [lgb.log_evaluation(20), lgb.record_evaluation(evals_result)]
if self.early_stopping_rounds:
callbacks.append(lgb.early_stopping(self.early_stopping_rounds))
self.logger.info("Training with early_stopping...")
model = lgb.train(
self.params,
dtrain,
num_boost_round=self.epochs,
valid_sets=[dtrain, dvalid],
valid_names=["train", "valid"],
callbacks=callbacks,
)
evals_result["train"] = list(evals_result["train"].values())[0]
evals_result["valid"] = list(evals_result["valid"].values())[0]
return model
def _prepare_data_gbm(self, df_train, df_valid, weights, features):
x_train, y_train = df_train["feature"].loc[:, features], df_train["label"]
x_valid, y_valid = df_valid["feature"].loc[:, features], df_valid["label"]
# Lightgbm need 1D array as its label
if y_train.values.ndim == 2 and y_train.values.shape[1] == 1:
y_train, y_valid = np.squeeze(y_train.values), np.squeeze(y_valid.values)
else:
raise ValueError("LightGBM doesn't support multi-label training")
dtrain = lgb.Dataset(x_train, label=y_train, weight=weights)
dvalid = lgb.Dataset(x_valid, label=y_valid)
return dtrain, dvalid
def sample_reweight(self, loss_curve, loss_values, k_th):
"""
the SR module of Double Ensemble
:param loss_curve: the shape is NxT
the loss curve for the previous sub-model, where the element (i, t) if the error on the i-th sample
after the t-th iteration in the training of the previous sub-model.
:param loss_values: the shape is N
the loss of the current ensemble on the i-th sample.
:param k_th: the index of the current sub-model, starting from 1
:return: weights
the weights for all the samples.
"""
# normalize loss_curve and loss_values with ranking
loss_curve_norm = loss_curve.rank(axis=0, pct=True)
loss_values_norm = (-loss_values).rank(pct=True)
# calculate l_start and l_end from loss_curve
N, T = loss_curve.shape
part = np.maximum(int(T * 0.1), 1)
l_start = loss_curve_norm.iloc[:, :part].mean(axis=1)
l_end = loss_curve_norm.iloc[:, -part:].mean(axis=1)
# calculate h-value for each sample
h1 = loss_values_norm
h2 = (l_end / l_start).rank(pct=True)
h = pd.DataFrame({"h_value": self.alpha1 * h1 + self.alpha2 * h2})
# calculate weights
h["bins"] = pd.cut(h["h_value"], self.bins_sr)
h_avg = h.groupby("bins")["h_value"].mean()
weights = pd.Series(np.zeros(N, dtype=float))
for b in h_avg.index:
weights[h["bins"] == b] = 1.0 / (self.decay**k_th * h_avg[b] + 0.1)
return weights
def feature_selection(self, df_train, loss_values):
"""
the FS module of Double Ensemble
:param df_train: the shape is NxF
:param loss_values: the shape is N
the loss of the current ensemble on the i-th sample.
:return: res_feat: in the form of pandas.Index
"""
x_train, y_train = df_train["feature"], df_train["label"]
features = x_train.columns
N, F = x_train.shape
g = pd.DataFrame({"g_value": np.zeros(F, dtype=float)})
M = len(self.ensemble)
# shuffle specific columns and calculate g-value for each feature
x_train_tmp = x_train.copy()
for i_f, feat in enumerate(features):
x_train_tmp.loc[:, feat] = np.random.permutation(x_train_tmp.loc[:, feat].values)
pred = pd.Series(np.zeros(N), index=x_train_tmp.index)
for i_s, submodel in enumerate(self.ensemble):
pred += (
pd.Series(
submodel.predict(x_train_tmp.loc[:, self.sub_features[i_s]].values), index=x_train_tmp.index
)
/ M
)
loss_feat = self.get_loss(y_train.values.squeeze(), pred.values)
g.loc[i_f, "g_value"] = np.mean(loss_feat - loss_values) / (np.std(loss_feat - loss_values) + 1e-7)
x_train_tmp.loc[:, feat] = x_train.loc[:, feat].copy()
# one column in train features is all-nan # if g['g_value'].isna().any()
g["g_value"].replace(np.nan, 0, inplace=True)
# divide features into bins_fs bins
g["bins"] = pd.cut(g["g_value"], self.bins_fs)
# randomly sample features from bins to construct the new features
res_feat = []
sorted_bins = sorted(g["bins"].unique(), reverse=True)
for i_b, b in enumerate(sorted_bins):
b_feat = features[g["bins"] == b]
num_feat = int(np.ceil(self.sample_ratios[i_b] * len(b_feat)))
res_feat = res_feat + np.random.choice(b_feat, size=num_feat, replace=False).tolist()
return pd.Index(set(res_feat))
def get_loss(self, label, pred):
if self.loss == "mse":
return (label - pred) ** 2
else:
raise ValueError("not implemented yet")
def retrieve_loss_curve(self, model, df_train, features):
if self.base_model == "gbm":
num_trees = model.num_trees()
x_train, y_train = df_train["feature"].loc[:, features], df_train["label"]
# Lightgbm need 1D array as its label
if y_train.values.ndim == 2 and y_train.values.shape[1] == 1:
y_train = np.squeeze(y_train.values)
else:
raise ValueError("LightGBM doesn't support multi-label training")
N = x_train.shape[0]
loss_curve = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros((N, num_trees)))
pred_tree = np.zeros(N, dtype=float)
for i_tree in range(num_trees):
pred_tree += model.predict(x_train.values, start_iteration=i_tree, num_iteration=1)
loss_curve.iloc[:, i_tree] = self.get_loss(y_train, pred_tree)
else:
raise ValueError("not implemented yet")
return loss_curve
def predict(self, dataset: DatasetH, segment: Union[Text, slice] = "test"):
if self.ensemble is None:
raise ValueError("model is not fitted yet!")
x_test = dataset.prepare(segment, col_set="feature", data_key=DataHandlerLP.DK_I)
pred = pd.Series(np.zeros(x_test.shape[0]), index=x_test.index)
for i_sub, submodel in enumerate(self.ensemble):
feat_sub = self.sub_features[i_sub]
pred += (
pd.Series(submodel.predict(x_test.loc[:, feat_sub].values), index=x_test.index)
* self.sub_weights[i_sub]
)
pred = pred / np.sum(self.sub_weights)
return pred
def predict_sub(self, submodel, df_data, features):
x_data = df_data["feature"].loc[:, features]
pred_sub = pd.Series(submodel.predict(x_data.values), index=x_data.index)
return pred_sub
def get_feature_importance(self, *args, **kwargs) -> pd.Series:
"""get feature importance
Notes
-----
parameters reference:
https://lightgbm.readthedocs.io/en/latest/pythonapi/lightgbm.Booster.html?highlight=feature_importance#lightgbm.Booster.feature_importance
"""
res = []
for _model, _weight in zip(self.ensemble, self.sub_weights):
res.append(pd.Series(_model.feature_importance(*args, **kwargs), index=_model.feature_name()) * _weight)
return pd.concat(res, axis=1, sort=False).sum(axis=1).sort_values(ascending=False)