diff --git a/qlib/model/riskmodel.py b/qlib/model/riskmodel.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..e63b8d4a2 --- /dev/null +++ b/qlib/model/riskmodel.py @@ -0,0 +1,455 @@ +# Copyright (c) Microsoft Corporation. +# Licensed under the MIT License. + +import warnings +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd + +from typing import Union + +from qlib.model.base import BaseModel + + +class RiskModel(BaseModel): + """Risk Model + + A risk model is used to estimate the covariance matrix of stock returns. + """ + + MASK_NAN = 'mask' + FILL_NAN = 'fill' + IGNORE_NAN = 'ignore' + + def __init__(self, nan_option: str = 'ignore', assume_centered: bool = False, scale_return: bool = True): + """ + Args: + nan_option (str): nan handling option (`ignore`/`mask`/`fill`) + assume_centered (bool): whether the data is assumed to be centered + scale_return (bool): whether scale returns as percentage + """ + # nan + assert nan_option in [self.MASK_NAN, self.FILL_NAN, self.IGNORE_NAN], \ + f'`nan_option={nan_option}` is not supported' + self.nan_option = nan_option + + self.assume_centered = assume_centered + self.scale_return = scale_return + + def predict(self, X: Union[pd.Series, pd.DataFrame, np.ndarray], + return_corr: bool = False, is_price: bool = True) -> Union[pd.DataFrame, np.ndarray]: + """ + Args: + X (pd.Series, pd.DataFrame or np.ndarray): data from which to estimate the covariance, + with variables as columns and observations as rows. + return_corr (bool): whether return the correlation matrix + is_price (bool): whether `X` contains price (if not assume stock returns) + + Returns: + pd.DataFrame or np.ndarray: estimated covariance (or correlation) + """ + # transform input into 2D array + if not isinstance(X, (pd.Series, pd.DataFrame)): + columns = None + else: + if isinstance(X.index, pd.MultiIndex): + if isinstance(X, pd.DataFrame): + X = X.iloc[:, 0].unstack(level='instrument') # always use the first column + else: + X = X.unstack(level='instrument') + else: + # X is 2D DataFrame + pass + columns = X.columns # will be used to restore dataframe + X = X.values + + # calculate pct_change + if is_price: + X = X[1:] / X[:-1] - 1 # NOTE: resulting `n - 1` rows + + # scale return + if self.scale_return: + X *= 100 + + # handle nan and centered + X = self._preprocess(X) + + # estimate covariance + S = self._predict(X) + + # return correlation if needed + if return_corr: + vola = np.sqrt(np.diag(S)) + corr = S / np.outer(vola, vola) + if columns is None: + return corr + return pd.DataFrame(corr, index=columns, columns=columns) + + # return covariance + if columns is None: + return S + return pd.DataFrame(S, index=columns, columns=columns) + + def _predict(self, X: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + """covariance estimation implementation + + This method should be overridden by child classes. + + By default, this method implements the empirical covariance estimation. + + Args: + X (np.ndarray): data matrix containing multiple variables (columns) and observations (rows) + + Returns: + np.ndarray: covariance matrix + """ + xTx = np.asarray(X.T.dot(X)) + N = len(X) + if isinstance(X, np.ma.MaskedArray): + M = 1 - X.mask + N = M.T.dot(M) # each pair has distinct number of samples + return xTx / N + + def _preprocess(self, X: np.ndarray) -> Union[np.ndarray, np.ma.MaskedArray]: + """handle nan and centerize data + + Note: + if `nan_option='mask'` then the returned array will be `np.ma.MaskedArray` + """ + # handle nan + if self.nan_option == self.FILL_NAN: + X = np.nan_to_num(X) + elif self.nan_option == self.MASK_NAN: + X = np.ma.masked_invalid(X) + # centerize + if not self.assume_centered: + X = X - np.nanmean(X, axis=0) + return X + + +class ShrinkCovEstimator(RiskModel): + """Shrinkage Covariance Estimator + + This estimator will shrink the sample covariance matrix towards + an identify matrix: + S_hat = (1 - alpha) * S + alpha * F + where `alpha` is the shrink parameter and `F` is the shrinking target. + + The following shrinking parameters (`alpha`) are supported: + - `lw` [1][2][3]: use Ledoit-Wolf shrinking parameter + - `oas` [4]: use Oracle Approximating Shrinkage shrinking parameter + - float: directly specify the shrink parameter, should be between [0, 1] + + The following shrinking targets (`F`) are supported: + - `const_var` [1][4][5]: assume stocks have the same constant variance and zero correlation + - `const_corr` [2][6]: assume stocks have different variance but equal correlation + - `single_factor` [3][7]: assume single factor model as the shrinking target + - np.ndarray: provide the shrinking targets directly + + Note: + - The optimal shrinking parameter depends on the selection of the shrinking target. + Currently, `oas` is not supported for `const_corr` and `single_factor`. + - Remember to set `nan_option` to `fill` or `mask` if your data has missing values. + + References: + [1] Ledoit, O., & Wolf, M. (2004). A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices. + Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 88(2), 365–411. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-259X(03)00096-4 + [2] Ledoit, O., & Wolf, M. (2004). Honey, I shrunk the sample covariance matrix. + Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(4), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2004.110 + [3] Ledoit, O., & Wolf, M. (2003). Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns + with an application to portfolio selection. + Journal of Empirical Finance, 10(5), 603–621. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-5398(03)00007-0 + [4] Chen, Y., Wiesel, A., Eldar, Y. C., & Hero, A. O. (2010). Shrinkage algorithms for MMSE covariance estimation. + IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 58(10), 5016–5029. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSP.2010.2053029 + [5] https://www.econ.uzh.ch/dam/jcr:ffffffff-935a-b0d6-0000-00007f64e5b9/cov1para.m.zip + [6] https://www.econ.uzh.ch/dam/jcr:ffffffff-935a-b0d6-ffff-ffffde5e2d4e/covCor.m.zip + [7] https://www.econ.uzh.ch/dam/jcr:ffffffff-935a-b0d6-0000-0000648dfc98/covMarket.m.zip + """ + + SHR_LW = 'lw' + SHR_OAS = 'oas' + + TGT_CONST_VAR = 'const_var' + TGT_CONST_CORR = 'const_corr' + TGT_SINGLE_FACTOR = 'single_factor' + + def __init__(self, alpha: Union[str, float] = 0.0, target: Union[str, np.ndarray] = 'const_var', **kwargs): + """ + Args: + alpha (str or float): shrinking parameter or estimator (`lw`/`oas`) + target (str or np.ndarray): shrinking target (`const_var`/`const_corr`/`single_factor`) + kwargs: see `RiskModel` for more information + """ + super().__init__(**kwargs) + + # alpha + if isinstance(alpha, str): + assert alpha in [self.SHR_LW, self.SHR_OAS], \ + f'shrinking method `{alpha}` is not supported' + elif isinstance(alpha, (float, np.floating)): + assert 0 <= alpha <= 1, 'alpha should be between [0, 1]' + else: + raise TypeError('invalid argument type for `alpha`') + self.alpha = alpha + + # target + if isinstance(target, str): + assert target in [self.TGT_CONST_VAR, self.TGT_CONST_CORR, self.TGT_SINGLE_FACTOR], \ + f'shrinking target `{target} is not supported' + elif isinstance(target, np.ndarray): + pass + else: + raise TypeError('invalid argument type for `target`') + if alpha == self.SHR_OAS and target != self.TGT_CONST_VAR: + raise NotImplementedError('currently `oas` can only support `const_var` as target') + self.target = target + + def _predict(self, X: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + # sample covariance + S = super()._predict(X) + + # shrinking target + F = self._get_shrink_target(X, S) + + # get shrinking parameter + alpha = self._get_shrink_param(X, S, F) + + # shrink covariance + if alpha > 0: + S *= (1 - alpha) + F *= alpha + S += F + + return S + + def _get_shrink_target(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + """get shrinking target `F`""" + if self.target == self.TGT_CONST_VAR: + return self._get_shrink_target_const_var(X, S) + if self.target == self.TGT_CONST_CORR: + return self._get_shrink_target_const_corr(X, S) + if self.target == self.TGT_SINGLE_FACTOR: + return self._get_shrink_target_single_factor(X, S) + + def _get_shrink_target_const_var(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + """get shrinking target with constant variance + + This target assumes zero pair-wise correlation and constant variance. + The constant variance is estimated by averaging all sample's variances. + """ + n = len(S) + F = np.eye(n) + np.fill_diagonal(F, np.mean(np.diag(S))) + return F + + def _get_shrink_target_const_corr(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + """get shrinking target with constant correlation + + This target assumes constant pair-wise correlation but keep the sample variance. + The constant correlation is estimated by averaging all pairwise correlations. + """ + n = len(S) + var = np.diag(S) + sqrt_var = np.sqrt(var) + covar = np.outer(sqrt_var, sqrt_var) + r_bar = (np.sum(S / covar) - n) / (n * (n - 1)) + F = r_bar * covar + np.fill_diagonal(F, var) + return F + + def _get_shrink_target_single_factor(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + """get shrinking target with single factor model""" + X_mkt = np.nanmean(X, axis=1) + cov_mkt = np.asarray(X.T.dot(X_mkt) / len(X)) + var_mkt = np.asarray(X_mkt.dot(X_mkt) / len(X)) + F = np.outer(cov_mkt, cov_mkt) / var_mkt + np.fill_diagonal(F, np.diag(S)) + return F + + def _get_shrink_param(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray, F: np.ndarray) -> float: + """get shrinking parameter `alpha` + + Note: + The Ledoit-Wolf shrinking parameter estimator consists of three different + """ + if self.alpha == self.SHR_OAS: + return self._get_shrink_param_oas(X, S, F) + elif self.alpha == self.SHR_LW: + if self.target == self.TGT_CONST_VAR: + return self._get_shrink_param_lw_const_var(X, S, F) + if self.target == self.TGT_CONST_CORR: + return self._get_shrink_param_lw_const_corr(X, S, F) + if self.target == self.TGT_SINGLE_FACTOR: + return self._get_shrink_param_lw_single_factor(X, S, F) + return self.alpha + + def _get_shrink_param_oas(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray, F: np.ndarray) -> float: + """Oracle Approximating Shrinkage Estimator + + This method uses the following formula to estimate the `alpha` + parameter for the shrink covariance estimator: + A = (1 - 2 / p) * trace(S^2) + trace^2(S) + B = (n + 1 - 2 / p) * (trace(S^2) - trace^2(S) / p) + alpha = A / B + where `n`, `p` are the dim of observations and variables respectively. + """ + trS2 = np.sum(S**2) + tr2S = np.trace(S)**2 + + n, p = X.shape + + A = (1 - 2 / p) * (trS2 + tr2S) + B = (n + 1 - 2 / p) * (trS2 + tr2S / p) + alpha = A / B + + return alpha + + def _get_shrink_param_lw_const_var(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray, F: np.ndarray) -> float: + """Ledoit-Wolf Shrinkage Estimator (Constant Variance) + + This method shrinks the covariance matrix towards the constand variance target. + """ + t, n = X.shape + + y = X**2 + phi = np.sum(y.T.dot(y) / t - S**2) + + gamma = np.linalg.norm(S - F, 'fro')**2 + + kappa = phi / gamma + alpha = max(0, min(1, kappa / t)) + + return alpha + + def _get_shrink_param_lw_const_corr(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray, F: np.ndarray) -> float: + """Ledoit-Wolf Shrinkage Estimator (Constant Correlation) + + This method shrinks the covariance matrix towards the constand correlation target. + """ + t, n = X.shape + + var = np.diag(S) + sqrt_var = np.sqrt(var) + r_bar = (np.sum(S / np.outer(sqrt_var, sqrt_var)) - n) / (n * (n - 1)) + + y = X**2 + phi_mat = y.T.dot(y) / t - S**2 + phi = np.sum(phi_mat) + + theta_mat = (X**3).T.dot(X) / t - var[:, None] * S + np.fill_diagonal(theta_mat, 0) + rho = np.sum(np.diag(phi_mat)) + r_bar * np.sum(np.outer(1 / sqrt_var, sqrt_var) * theta_mat) + + gamma = np.linalg.norm(S - F, 'fro')**2 + + kappa = (phi - rho) / gamma + alpha = max(0, min(1, kappa / t)) + + return alpha + + def _get_shrink_param_lw_single_factor(self, X: np.ndarray, S: np.ndarray, F: np.ndarray) -> float: + """Ledoit-Wolf Shrinkage Estimator (Single Factor Model) + + This method shrinks the covariance matrix towards the single factor model target. + """ + t, n = X.shape + + X_mkt = np.nanmean(X, axis=1) + cov_mkt = np.asarray(X.T.dot(X_mkt) / len(X)) + var_mkt = np.asarray(X_mkt.dot(X_mkt) / len(X)) + + y = X**2 + phi = np.sum(y.T.dot(y)) / t - np.sum(S**2) + + rdiag = np.sum(y**2) / t - np.sum(np.diag(S)**2) + z = X * X_mkt[:, None] + v1 = y.T.dot(z) / t - cov_mkt[:, None] * S + roff1 = np.sum(v1 * cov_mkt[:, None].T) / var_mkt - np.sum(np.diag(v1) * cov_mkt) / var_mkt + v3 = z.T.dot(z) / t - var_mkt * S + roff3 = np.sum(v3 * np.outer(cov_mkt, cov_mkt)) / var_mkt**2 - np.sum(np.diag(v3) * cov_mkt**2) / var_mkt**2 + roff = 2 * roff1 - roff3 + rho = rdiag + roff + + gamma = np.linalg.norm(S - F, 'fro')**2 + + kappa = (phi - rho) / gamma + alpha = max(0, min(1, kappa / t)) + + return alpha + + +class POETCovEstimator(RiskModel): + """Principal Orthogonal Complement Thresholding Estimator (POET) + + Reference: + [1] Fan, J., Liao, Y., & Mincheva, M. (2013). Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements. + Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology, 75(4), 603–680. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12016 + [2] http://econweb.rutgers.edu/yl1114/papers/poet/POET.m + """ + + THRESH_SOFT = 'soft' + THRESH_HARD = 'hard' + THRESH_SCAD = 'scad' + + def __init__(self, num_factors: int = 0, thresh: float = 1.0, thresh_method: str = 'soft', **kwargs): + """ + Args: + num_factors (int): number of factors (if set to zero, no factor model will be used) + thresh (float): the positive constant for thresholding + thresh_method (str): thresholding method, which can be + - 'soft': soft thresholding + - 'hard': hard thresholding + - 'scad': scad thresholding + kwargs: see `RiskModel` for more information + """ + super().__init__(**kwargs) + + assert num_factors >= 0, '`num_factors` requires a positive integer' + self.num_factors = num_factors + + assert thresh >= 0, '`thresh` requires a positive float number' + self.thresh = thresh + + assert thresh_method in [self.THRESH_HARD, self.THRESH_SOFT, self.THRESH_SCAD], \ + '`thresh_method` should be `soft`/`hard`/`scad`' + self.thresh_method = thresh_method + + def _predict(self, X: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + + Y = X.T # NOTE: to match POET's implementation + p, n = Y.shape + + if self.num_factors > 0: + Dd, V = np.linalg.eig(Y.T.dot(Y)) + V = V[:, np.argsort(Dd)] + F = V[:, -self.num_factors:][:, ::-1] * np.sqrt(n) + LamPCA = Y.dot(F) / n + uhat = np.asarray(Y - LamPCA.dot(F.T)) + Lowrank = np.asarray(LamPCA.dot(LamPCA.T)) + rate = 1 / np.sqrt(p) + np.sqrt(np.log(p) / n) + else: + uhat = np.asarray(Y) + rate = np.sqrt(np.log(p) / n) + Lowrank = 0 + + lamb = rate * self.thresh + SuPCA = uhat.dot(uhat.T) / n + SuDiag = np.diag(np.diag(SuPCA)) + R = np.linalg.inv(SuDiag**0.5).dot(SuPCA).dot(np.linalg.inv(SuDiag**0.5)) + + if self.thresh_method == self.THRESH_HARD: + M = R * (np.abs(R) > lamb) + elif self.thresh_method == self.THRESH_SOFT: + res = (np.abs(R) - lamb) + res = (res + np.abs(res)) / 2 + M = np.sign(R) * res + else: + M1 = (np.abs(R) < 2 * lamb) * np.sign(R) * (np.abs(R) - lamb) * (np.abs(R) > lamb) + M2 = (np.abs(R) < 3.7 * lamb) * (np.abs(R) >= 2 * lamb) * (2.7 * R - 3.7 * np.sign(R) * lamb) / 1.7 + M3 = (np.abs(R) >= 3.7 * lamb) * R + M = M1 + M2 + M3 + + Rthresh = M - np.diag(np.diag(M)) + np.eye(p) + SigmaU = (SuDiag**0.5).dot(Rthresh).dot(SuDiag**0.5) + SigmaY = SigmaU + Lowrank + + return SigmaY