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nofx/scripts
tinkle-community 5cd62e3c3a fix: exit-guard thresholds were margin-basis, tightening with leverage
Live decomposition of the 2026-07-23 drawdown (equity 62.6 -> 31.1 in one
day, 43 fills, avg hold <1h despite a 4h min hold): both exit guards
compared thresholds meant as price moves against leverage-multiplied
margin PnL%, so raising leverage 5x -> 10x silently halved every trigger
distance:

- throttle bypass: -5% 'stop' unlocked AI closes at a -0.5% price wiggle
  (ETH -0.5%/44min, AAVE -0.9%/45min, MU -2.4%/14min all sailed through)
- drawdown monitor: 'profit > 5%' armed at +0.5% price, then market-closed
  winners on a 40% giveback (SNDK +0.6%/35min, NVDA +0.3%/37min) — every
  winner strangled at breakeven while losers realized fast

Fix: evaluate both guards on price-basis PnL (margin PnL% / leverage).
Throttle thresholds keep their documented price meaning at any leverage;
the drawdown monitor now arms only after a real +5% price move. Peak-PnL
cache stays margin-basis for prompt display consistency.

Replay simulator updated to the same price-basis semantics.
2026-07-24 13:39:40 +09:00
..