config: stop the churn — hold for big moves, wide TP/SL, low leverage

Live decomposition of the losing streak: 23% win rate with avg win +$1.23 /
avg loss -$1.04 on ~0.3-0.5% price moves, where the ~0.14% round-trip fee ate
30-50% of every tiny winner. Death by small-move grinding. The AI was closing
positions on ±0.5% noise after the 60m min-hold, capping winners at ~0.86%.

Redesign to 'few big positions, held for big moves':
- Throttle: min hold 60m->4h, noise-close window 90m->8h, reentry 30m->3h,
  opens/hour 30->3, opens/cycle 6->2. Noise band widened -1%..+2% -> -4%..+6%
  so small moves can no longer trigger a close.
- Exits: stop bypass -2.5% -> -5%, take-profit bypass +5% -> +12% (wide,
  asymmetric — let winners run, cut losers only on a real move).
- Leverage 20x -> 5x: a -5% stop at 20x is instant liquidation; at 5x it is
  -25% of margin, survivable. 2 positions x 2.5x = 5x total (full margin,
  ~20% cushion) instead of 4x5x=20x.
- Prompt now instructs the AI to set wide stops (~-5%) and distant targets
  (~+10-12%), hold multi-hour, and never scalp 0.5% moves.

Live strategy updated (maxPos=2, lev=5, ratio=2.5).

api/handler_user.go

@@ -262,15 +262,14 @@ func (s *Server) createDefaultStrategies(userID string, lang string) error {
 		c.CoinSource.VergexLimit = 10
 		c.CoinSource.VergexMarketType = "all"
 		c.CoinSource.VergexChain = "hyperliquid"
-		c.RiskControl.MaxPositions = 4
-		c.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxLeverage = 20
-		c.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxLeverage = 20
-		// 5× equity notional per position: 4 positions = 20x total account
-		// notional (full margin, ~5% liquidation cushion). Aggressive by
-		// operator choice — bigger single positions; the 0.4 short-signal
-		// floor keeps the book balanced so it is not a one-directional bet.
-		c.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxPositionValueRatio = 5.0
-		c.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxPositionValueRatio = 5.0
+		c.RiskControl.MaxPositions = 2
+		c.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxLeverage = 5
+		c.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxLeverage = 5
+		// Few, concentrated positions held for big moves. 5x leverage so a
+		// wide (-5%) stop is survivable rather than an instant liquidation;
+		// 2 positions × 2.5x = 5x total notional (full margin, ~20% cushion).
+		c.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxPositionValueRatio = 2.5
+		c.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxPositionValueRatio = 2.5
 		c.RiskControl.MaxMarginUsage = 1.0
 		c.RiskControl.MinConfidence = 78
 		c.RiskControl.MinRiskRewardRatio = 3.0

api/handler_user_default_strategy_test.go

@@ -54,16 +54,16 @@ func TestCreateDefaultStrategiesUsesOneReadyToRunClaw402Preset(t *testing.T) {
 	if trendCfg.CoinSource.SourceType != "vergex_signal" || trendCfg.CoinSource.VergexLimit != 10 || trendCfg.CoinSource.VergexMarketType != "all" {
 		t.Fatalf("default strategy should use the Claw402/Vergex all-market signal ranking, got %+v", trendCfg.CoinSource)
 	}
-	if trendCfg.CoinSource.UseAI500 || trendCfg.RiskControl.MaxPositions != 4 {
-		t.Fatalf("default strategy should be Claw402/Vergex native with a 4-position balanced book, got coin=%+v risk=%+v", trendCfg.CoinSource, trendCfg.RiskControl)
+	if trendCfg.CoinSource.UseAI500 || trendCfg.RiskControl.MaxPositions != 2 {
+		t.Fatalf("default strategy should be Claw402/Vergex native with a 2-position concentrated book, got coin=%+v risk=%+v", trendCfg.CoinSource, trendCfg.RiskControl)
 	}
-	if trendCfg.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxLeverage != 20 || trendCfg.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxLeverage != 20 {
-		t.Fatalf("default strategy should use 20x leverage for all Claw402 opens, got risk=%+v", trendCfg.RiskControl)
+	if trendCfg.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxLeverage != 5 || trendCfg.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxLeverage != 5 {
+		t.Fatalf("default strategy should use 5x leverage for all Claw402 opens, got risk=%+v", trendCfg.RiskControl)
 	}
-	if trendCfg.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxPositionValueRatio != 5 ||
-		trendCfg.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxPositionValueRatio != 5 ||
+	if trendCfg.RiskControl.BTCETHMaxPositionValueRatio != 2.5 ||
+		trendCfg.RiskControl.AltcoinMaxPositionValueRatio != 2.5 ||
 		trendCfg.RiskControl.MaxMarginUsage != 1.0 {
-		t.Fatalf("default strategy should size Claw402 opens at 5x equity notional (4 positions = 20x total at 20x), got risk=%+v", trendCfg.RiskControl)
+		t.Fatalf("default strategy should size Claw402 opens at 2.5x equity notional (2 positions = 5x total at 5x), got risk=%+v", trendCfg.RiskControl)
 	}
 }
 

kernel/engine_prompt.go

@@ -215,9 +215,9 @@ func (e *StrategyEngine) buildVergexSystemPrompt(accountEquity float64, variant
 		sb.WriteString("- Ranking alone is not an entry reason; it only defines the candidate pool.\n")
 		sb.WriteString("- Every symbol in Candidate Coins is part of the allowed trading universe; missing detail can lower confidence or trigger waiting, but does not make the symbol non-tradable.\n")
 		sb.WriteString("- If Signal Lab or heatmap is absent from that symbol's Vergex Claw402 Signals, state it in reasoning; if it is present, never claim the symbol lacks that data.\n")
-		sb.WriteString("- Avoid churn: unless stopping out or taking a strong profit, hold new positions for at least 60 minutes; avoid flat/noise closes until roughly 90 minutes; after closing a symbol, wait 90 minutes before re-entry; open at most 1 new position per hour.\n")
-		sb.WriteString("- Fees are the main edge killer: a round trip costs roughly 0.1%% of notional (about 1%% of margin at 10x). Only take setups whose expected move to target is at least 3x that cost; fewer, higher-conviction, longer-hold trades beat frequent scalps.\n")
-		sb.WriteString("- Stops must sit beyond invalidation; targets should prefer heatmap resistance/liquidation zones or valid risk/reward levels.\n\n")
+		sb.WriteString("- Hold for BIG moves, do not churn: hold new positions for at least 4 hours; never close inside the -4%% to +6%% noise band before ~8 hours; after closing a symbol wait 3 hours before re-entry; open at most 1-2 new positions per hour. Small in-and-out trades bled this account to death on fees.\n")
+		sb.WriteString("- Fees are the main edge killer: a round trip costs ~0.1%% of notional. Only enter setups where the realistic target is a LARGE move: stop-loss around -5%% and take-profit around +10-12%% (roughly 2:1 or better). Do not aim for 0.5%% scalps — they cannot cover fees. Fewer, high-conviction, wide-target, multi-hour holds only.\n")
+		sb.WriteString("- Set WIDE stops and targets: place the stop well beyond short-term noise (around -5%%) and the target at a distant heatmap resistance/liquidation zone (around +10-12%%). Give the position room to develop; do not exit on small green or small red.\n\n")
 	} else {
 		sb.WriteString("# You are the NOFX Claw402 auto-trader\n\n")
 		sb.WriteString("Trade only Hyperliquid instruments returned by this cycle's Claw402.ai/Vergex board. You may trade only the current candidate symbols and existing positions; never invent tickers or rotate outside the provided universe.\n\n")
@@ -232,9 +232,9 @@ func (e *StrategyEngine) buildVergexSystemPrompt(accountEquity float64, variant
 		sb.WriteString("- Ranking alone is not an entry reason; it only defines the candidate pool.\n")
 		sb.WriteString("- Every symbol in Candidate Coins is part of the allowed trading universe; missing detail can lower confidence or trigger waiting, but does not make the symbol non-tradable.\n")
 		sb.WriteString("- If Signal Lab or heatmap is absent from that symbol's Vergex Claw402 Signals, state it in reasoning; if it is present, never claim the symbol lacks that data.\n")
-		sb.WriteString("- Avoid churn: unless stopping out or taking a strong profit, hold new positions for at least 60 minutes; avoid flat/noise closes until roughly 90 minutes; after closing a symbol, wait 90 minutes before re-entry; open at most 1 new position per hour.\n")
-		sb.WriteString("- Fees are the main edge killer: a round trip costs roughly 0.1%% of notional (about 1%% of margin at 10x). Only take setups whose expected move to target is at least 3x that cost; fewer, higher-conviction, longer-hold trades beat frequent scalps.\n")
-		sb.WriteString("- Stops must sit beyond invalidation; targets should prefer heatmap resistance/liquidation zones or valid risk/reward levels.\n\n")
+		sb.WriteString("- Hold for BIG moves, do not churn: hold new positions for at least 4 hours; never close inside the -4%% to +6%% noise band before ~8 hours; after closing a symbol wait 3 hours before re-entry; open at most 1-2 new positions per hour. Small in-and-out trades bled this account to death on fees.\n")
+		sb.WriteString("- Fees are the main edge killer: a round trip costs ~0.1%% of notional. Only enter setups where the realistic target is a LARGE move: stop-loss around -5%% and take-profit around +10-12%% (roughly 2:1 or better). Do not aim for 0.5%% scalps — they cannot cover fees. Fewer, high-conviction, wide-target, multi-hour holds only.\n")
+		sb.WriteString("- Set WIDE stops and targets: place the stop well beyond short-term noise (around -5%%) and the target at a distant heatmap resistance/liquidation zone (around +10-12%%). Give the position room to develop; do not exit on small green or small red.\n\n")
 	}
 
 	writeModeVariant(&sb, variant, zh)

kernel/engine_prompt_test.go

@@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ func TestBuildSystemPromptUsesVergexClaw402Prompt(t *testing.T) {
 	if !strings.Contains(prompt, "Direction must be data-driven") {
 		t.Fatalf("prompt should explain that direction is data-driven, not long-only:\n%s", prompt)
 	}
-	if !strings.Contains(prompt, "every open position must use exactly 20x") {
-		t.Fatalf("prompt should force 20x leverage for Claw402 opens:\n%s", prompt)
+	if !strings.Contains(prompt, "every open position must use exactly 5x") {
+		t.Fatalf("prompt should force 5x leverage for Claw402 opens:\n%s", prompt)
 	}
 	if !strings.Contains(prompt, "use the full max notional per position") {
 		t.Fatalf("prompt should force full-size Claw402 opens:\n%s", prompt)

store/strategy.go

@@ -1014,11 +1014,11 @@ func GetDefaultStrategyConfig(lang string) StrategyConfig {
 			PriceRankingLimit:      10,
 		},
 		RiskControl: RiskControlConfig{
-			MaxPositions:                 4,   // Room for ~2 long + 2 short (CODE ENFORCED)
-			BTCETHMaxLeverage:            20,  // BTC/ETH exchange leverage (AI guided)
-			AltcoinMaxLeverage:           20,  // TradeFi exchange leverage (AI guided)
-			BTCETHMaxPositionValueRatio:  5.0, // Per-position notional = equity × 5; 4 positions = 20x total (full margin, ~5% liquidation cushion — aggressive by operator choice)
-			AltcoinMaxPositionValueRatio: 5.0, // Per-position notional = equity × 5; 4 positions = 20x total (full margin, ~5% liquidation cushion — aggressive by operator choice)
+			MaxPositions:                 2,   // Few, concentrated positions held for big moves (CODE ENFORCED)
+			BTCETHMaxLeverage:            5,   // Low leverage so a big (-5%) stop is survivable, not an instant liquidation
+			AltcoinMaxLeverage:           5,   // Low leverage so a big (-5%) stop is survivable, not an instant liquidation
+			BTCETHMaxPositionValueRatio:  2.5, // Per-position notional = equity × 2.5; 2 positions = 5x total (full margin at 5x, ~20% liquidation cushion)
+			AltcoinMaxPositionValueRatio: 2.5, // Per-position notional = equity × 2.5; 2 positions = 5x total (full margin at 5x, ~20% liquidation cushion)
 			MaxMarginUsage:               1.0, // Claw402 Autopilot intentionally uses full margin when opening
 			MinPositionSize:              12,  // Min 12 USDT per position (CODE ENFORCED)
 			MinRiskRewardRatio:           3.0, // Min 3:1 profit/loss ratio (AI guided)

trader/auto_trader_throttle.go

@@ -10,23 +10,25 @@ import (
 )
 
 const (
-	// Live history: trades held under an hour were net-negative after fees
-	// (the 15-60m bucket bled), while the edge concentrated in 1h+ holds.
-	autopilotMinHoldDuration        = 60 * time.Minute
-	autopilotNoiseCloseHoldDuration = 90 * time.Minute
-	autopilotReentryCooldown        = 30 * time.Minute
-	// Allow one long + one short per cycle. The real exposure/churn limits are
-	// MaxPositions (concurrent) + the 45m min-hold + the 90m per-symbol reentry
-	// cooldown, so the per-hour cap only needs to be high enough not to block the
-	// directional pair from re-establishing after positions close. A tight value
-	// here (e.g. 2) starves the strategy: once a couple opens fire, every later
-	// cycle is blocked and the book drains to flat. Keep it generous.
-	autopilotMaxOpensPerHour        = 30
-	autopilotMaxOpensPerCycle       = 6
-	earlyCloseStopLossBypassPct     = -2.5
-	earlyCloseTakeProfitBypassPct   = 5.0
-	noiseCloseLossFloorPct          = -1.0
-	noiseCloseProfitCeilingPct      = 2.0
+	// "Hold for big moves, don't churn" regime. Live history showed the
+	// account bleeding to death by fees: 0.3-0.5% in/out moves where a ~0.14%
+	// round-trip fee ate 30-50% of every small winner. These values force
+	// positions to be held for hours and to develop meaningful moves before
+	// closing, and cut the trade frequency hard.
+	autopilotMinHoldDuration        = 4 * time.Hour
+	autopilotNoiseCloseHoldDuration = 8 * time.Hour
+	autopilotReentryCooldown        = 3 * time.Hour
+	// Drastically cut churn: at most a couple of new positions per hour/cycle.
+	autopilotMaxOpensPerHour        = 3
+	autopilotMaxOpensPerCycle       = 2
+	// Wide, asymmetric exits. Cut a loser only at a real -5% (at 5x leverage
+	// that is -25% of margin — survivable), let a winner run to +12% before
+	// any early take-profit. The noise band (-4%..+6%) blocks closing on the
+	// small moves that were grinding the account to nothing.
+	earlyCloseStopLossBypassPct     = -5.0
+	earlyCloseTakeProfitBypassPct   = 12.0
+	noiseCloseLossFloorPct          = -4.0
+	noiseCloseProfitCeilingPct      = 6.0
 )
 
 func isOpenAction(action string) bool {

trader/auto_trader_throttle_test.go

@@ -32,7 +32,8 @@ func TestTradeThrottleBlocksEarlyNoiseClose(t *testing.T) {
 
 func TestTradeThrottleAllowsEarlyHardStop(t *testing.T) {
 	at := &AutoTrader{}
-	ctx := throttleContext("xyz:INTC", "long", 20*time.Minute, -3.0)
+	// Only a real -5% stop bypasses the min hold now.
+	ctx := throttleContext("xyz:INTC", "long", 20*time.Minute, -6.0)
 
 	reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "close_long"}, ctx, 0)
 	if reason != "" {
@@ -42,7 +43,8 @@ func TestTradeThrottleAllowsEarlyHardStop(t *testing.T) {
 
 func TestTradeThrottleBlocksFlatCloseInsideNoiseWindow(t *testing.T) {
 	at := &AutoTrader{}
-	ctx := throttleContext("xyz:INTC", "long", 60*time.Minute, 0.4)
+	// Held past the 4h min hold but still inside the wide -4%..+6% noise band.
+	ctx := throttleContext("xyz:INTC", "long", 5*time.Hour, 0.4)
 
 	reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "close_long"}, ctx, 0)
 	if !strings.Contains(reason, "noise band") {
@@ -52,7 +54,8 @@ func TestTradeThrottleBlocksFlatCloseInsideNoiseWindow(t *testing.T) {
 
 func TestTradeThrottleAllowsConfirmedLossAfterMinimumHold(t *testing.T) {
 	at := &AutoTrader{}
-	ctx := throttleContext("xyz:INTC", "long", 60*time.Minute, -1.2)
+	// Past the 4h min hold, loss beyond the -4% noise floor → close allowed.
+	ctx := throttleContext("xyz:INTC", "long", 5*time.Hour, -4.5)
 
 	reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "close_long"}, ctx, 0)
 	if reason != "" {
@@ -76,13 +79,13 @@ func TestTradeThrottleBlocksOpensOverCycleCap(t *testing.T) {
 	at := &AutoTrader{}
 	ctx := &kernel.Context{}
 
-	// under the 6-per-cycle cap, a further open is allowed
-	if reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "open_long"}, ctx, 5); reason != "" {
-		t.Fatalf("expected open within the 6-per-cycle cap to be allowed, got %q", reason)
+	// under the 2-per-cycle cap, a further open is allowed
+	if reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "open_long"}, ctx, 1); reason != "" {
+		t.Fatalf("expected open within the 2-per-cycle cap to be allowed, got %q", reason)
 	}
 	// at the cap, the next open is blocked
-	if reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "open_long"}, ctx, 6); !strings.Contains(reason, "6 new position") {
-		t.Fatalf("expected open beyond the 6-per-cycle cap to be blocked, got %q", reason)
+	if reason := at.tradeThrottleReason(kernel.Decision{Symbol: "xyz:INTC", Action: "open_long"}, ctx, 2); !strings.Contains(reason, "2 new position") {
+		t.Fatalf("expected open beyond the 2-per-cycle cap to be blocked, got %q", reason)
 	}
 }
 

trader/hyperliquid/order_sync.go

@@ -20,13 +20,16 @@ func (t *HyperliquidTrader) SyncOrdersFromHyperliquid(traderID string, exchangeI
 		return fmt.Errorf("store is nil")
 	}
 
-	// Get recent trades (last 24 hours)
-	startTime := time.Now().Add(-24 * time.Hour)
+	// Look back 7 days. GetTrades now pulls up to 2000 recent fills (UserFills)
+	// and filters to this window, so a wide lookback backfills any fills missed
+	// during past outages/gaps without dropping recent ones. Dedup by trade ID
+	// keeps re-processing idempotent.
+	startTime := time.Now().Add(-7 * 24 * time.Hour)
 
 	logger.Infof("🔄 Syncing Hyperliquid trades from: %s", startTime.Format(time.RFC3339))
 
 	// Use GetTrades method to fetch trade records
-	trades, err := t.GetTrades(startTime, 1000)
+	trades, err := t.GetTrades(startTime, 2000)
 	if err != nil {
 		return fmt.Errorf("failed to get trades: %w", err)
 	}

trader/hyperliquid/trader_account.go

@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ import (
 	"strconv"
 	"strings"
 	"time"
+
+	hl "github.com/sonirico/go-hyperliquid"
 )
 
 // GetBalance gets account balance
@@ -548,15 +550,23 @@ func (t *HyperliquidTrader) GetClosedPnL(startTime time.Time, limit int) ([]type
 
 // GetTrades retrieves trade history from Hyperliquid
 func (t *HyperliquidTrader) GetTrades(startTime time.Time, limit int) ([]types.TradeRecord, error) {
-	// Use UserFillsByTime API
+	// Use UserFills (returns up to 2000 recent fills) rather than
+	// UserFillsByTime, which is hard-capped at 100 fills per response. At
+	// this trading frequency the account exceeds 100 fills/24h, so
+	// UserFillsByTime silently dropped ~20% of fills — skewing recorded PnL
+	// and fees away from the exchange truth. 2000 recent fills covers many
+	// days of history; we filter to startTime client-side.
 	startTimeMs := startTime.UnixMilli()
-	fills, err := t.exchange.Info().UserFillsByTime(t.ctx, t.walletAddr, startTimeMs, nil, nil)
+	fills, err := t.exchange.Info().UserFills(t.ctx, hl.UserFillsParams{Address: t.walletAddr})
 	if err != nil {
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("failed to get user fills: %w", err)
 	}
 
 	var trades []types.TradeRecord
 	for _, fill := range fills {
+		if fill.Time < startTimeMs {
+			continue
+		}
 		price, _ := strconv.ParseFloat(fill.Price, 64)
 		qty, _ := strconv.ParseFloat(fill.Size, 64)
 		fee, _ := strconv.ParseFloat(fill.Fee, 64)

web/src/pages/StrategyStudioPage.tsx

@@ -1388,14 +1388,13 @@ export function StrategyStudioPage() {
       }),
       risk_control: defaultRisk({
         ...base.ai_config?.risk_control,
-        max_positions: 4,
-        btc_eth_max_leverage: 20,
-        altcoin_max_leverage: 20,
-        // 5× equity notional per position — 4 positions = 20x total account
-        // notional (full margin, ~5% liquidation cushion). Aggressive by
-        // operator choice; the 0.4 short-signal floor keeps the book balanced.
-        btc_eth_max_position_value_ratio: 5,
-        altcoin_max_position_value_ratio: 5,
+        max_positions: 2,
+        btc_eth_max_leverage: 5,
+        altcoin_max_leverage: 5,
+        // Few, concentrated positions held for big moves. 5x leverage so a
+        // wide (-5%) stop is survivable; 2 positions × 2.5x = 5x total.
+        btc_eth_max_position_value_ratio: 2.5,
+        altcoin_max_position_value_ratio: 2.5,
         max_margin_usage: 1.0,
         min_confidence: 78,
         min_risk_reward_ratio: 3,