feat: data-driven autopilot profitability tuning + edge profile panel

Analysis of 410 live closed trades found the edge is real but was being
destroyed by execution: gross +$267 vs $245 fees; trades held <1h were net
negative (the <15m bucket alone: -$48 on $66 fees) while 1h+ holds carried
+$78; shorts lost $72 while longs made $94 — and both the prompt and the
engine were manufacturing those losers.

Changes, each tied to the data:
- Prompt: removed the 'MUST open at least one long AND one short every
  cycle' mandate (forced weak-signal shorts); direction is now data-driven
  with 'never open just to balance the book'. Added fee-awareness (round
  trip ≈ 0.1% notional, require expected move ≥ 3x cost) and aligned the
  hold discipline with the backend throttle.
- Forced book-balance opens now require |board z-score| ≥ 0.75 — the engine
  previously force-opened full-size 10x positions on near-neutral signals
  with hardcoded confidence 70. DirectionalCandidates now carries scores.
- Min AI-managed hold raised 45m → 60m (the 15-60m bucket still bled after
  the earlier throttle landed).
- Legacy prompt hygiene: vergex path drops long-only-era custom prompts and
  zh-era configs fall back wholesale to built-in English sections — fixes
  the two long-failing kernel prompt tests.
- New Edge Profile dashboard panel: net after fees by hold-time bucket and
  side, computed from recent closed trades, with an automatic takeaway line
  — the fee/churn regression detector, always visible. Fixed the
  HistoricalPosition timestamp types (epoch ms, not strings).

web/src/components/terminal/EdgeProfile.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+import { useMemo } from 'react'
+import type { HistoricalPosition } from '../../types'
+
+/**
+ * EdgeProfile — where the money actually comes from. Aggregates recent closed
+ * trades into hold-duration buckets plus a long/short split, each with net
+ * PnL, fee load and win rate. This is the panel that made the fee-drag and
+ * churn problems visible, kept on the dashboard so regressions show up
+ * immediately.
+ */
+
+interface EdgeProfileProps {
+  positions?: HistoricalPosition[]
+}
+
+interface BucketAgg {
+  label: string
+  n: number
+  net: number
+  fees: number
+  wins: number
+}
+
+function newBucket(label: string): BucketAgg {
+  return { label, n: 0, net: 0, fees: 0, wins: 0 }
+}
+
+function add(bucket: BucketAgg, pos: HistoricalPosition) {
+  bucket.n += 1
+  bucket.net += pos.realized_pnl || 0
+  bucket.fees += pos.fee || 0
+  if ((pos.realized_pnl || 0) > 0) bucket.wins += 1
+}
+
+function fmtUsd(n: number): string {
+  const sign = n < 0 ? '-' : '+'
+  return `${sign}$${Math.abs(n).toFixed(2)}`
+}
+
+/** Accepts epoch ms (the API's format) or a date string, returns epoch ms. */
+function toEpochMs(value: number | string): number {
+  if (typeof value === 'number') return value
+  const numeric = Number(value)
+  if (Number.isFinite(numeric) && numeric > 0) return numeric
+  return Date.parse(value)
+}
+
+export function EdgeProfile({ positions }: EdgeProfileProps) {
+  const { holdBuckets, sideBuckets, sample } = useMemo(() => {
+    const holds = [
+      newBucket('<15m'),
+      newBucket('15-60m'),
+      newBucket('1-3h'),
+      newBucket('>3h'),
+    ]
+    const sides = [newBucket('long'), newBucket('short')]
+    let counted = 0
+
+    for (const pos of positions ?? []) {
+      if ((pos.status || '').toUpperCase() !== 'CLOSED') continue
+      const entry = toEpochMs(pos.entry_time)
+      const exit = toEpochMs(pos.exit_time)
+      if (!Number.isFinite(entry) || !Number.isFinite(exit) || exit <= entry) {
+        continue
+      }
+      counted += 1
+
+      const holdMin = (exit - entry) / 60000
+      const holdBucket =
+        holdMin < 15 ? holds[0] : holdMin < 60 ? holds[1] : holdMin < 180 ? holds[2] : holds[3]
+      add(holdBucket, pos)
+
+      const sideBucket =
+        (pos.side || '').toLowerCase() === 'short' ? sides[1] : sides[0]
+      add(sideBucket, pos)
+    }
+
+    return { holdBuckets: holds, sideBuckets: sides, sample: counted }
+  }, [positions])
+
+  if (sample === 0) {
+    return <div className="tm-sc">No closed trades yet.</div>
+  }
+
+  const maxAbsNet = Math.max(0.01, ...holdBuckets.map((b) => Math.abs(b.net)))
+
+  const row = (bucket: BucketAgg) => {
+    const winPct = bucket.n > 0 ? (100 * bucket.wins) / bucket.n : 0
+    const up = bucket.net >= 0
+    return (
+      <div key={bucket.label} style={{ marginBottom: 7 }}>
+        <div className="tm-mono" style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'baseline', fontSize: 11, marginBottom: 2 }}>
+          <span style={{ fontWeight: 500, minWidth: 52 }}>{bucket.label}</span>
+          <span className="tm-sc">
+            {bucket.n} trades · {bucket.n > 0 ? `${winPct.toFixed(0)}% win` : '—'} · fees ${bucket.fees.toFixed(2)}
+          </span>
+          <span className={up ? 'tm-up' : 'tm-dn'} style={{ marginLeft: 'auto', fontWeight: 600 }}>
+            {bucket.n > 0 ? fmtUsd(bucket.net) : '—'}
+          </span>
+        </div>
+        {/* diverging net bar around a center axis */}
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', height: 4, background: 'var(--tm-hair)' }}>
+          <div style={{ width: '50%', display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'flex-end' }}>
+            {!up && (
+              <div style={{ height: 4, width: `${(Math.abs(bucket.net) / maxAbsNet) * 100}%`, background: 'var(--tm-dn)' }} />
+            )}
+          </div>
+          <div style={{ width: '50%' }}>
+            {up && bucket.net > 0 && (
+              <div style={{ height: 4, width: `${(bucket.net / maxAbsNet) * 100}%`, background: 'var(--tm-up)' }} />
+            )}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    )
+  }
+
+  // one-line takeaway: does patience pay on this book?
+  const shortHolds = holdBuckets[0].net + holdBuckets[1].net
+  const longHolds = holdBuckets[2].net + holdBuckets[3].net
+  const takeaway =
+    longHolds > shortHolds
+      ? `edge concentrates in holds ≥ 1h (${fmtUsd(longHolds)} vs ${fmtUsd(shortHolds)} under 1h)`
+      : `short holds outperform on this sample (${fmtUsd(shortHolds)} vs ${fmtUsd(longHolds)} ≥ 1h)`
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      {holdBuckets.map(row)}
+      <div style={{ borderTop: '1px solid var(--tm-hair)', margin: '8px 0 7px' }} />
+      {sideBuckets.map(row)}
+      <div className="tm-sc" style={{ marginTop: 6, fontSize: 9 }}>
+        last {sample} closed · {takeaway}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+export default EdgeProfile

web/src/components/terminal/TerminalDashboard.tsx

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import { KlineChart } from './KlineChart'
 import { ExecutionLog } from './ExecutionLog'
 import { SignalMatrix } from './SignalMatrix'
 import { RiskRadar } from './RiskRadar'
+import { EdgeProfile } from './EdgeProfile'
 import { useDemoEngine } from '../../lib/demo/useDemoEngine'
 
 // crypto majors trade on the Hyperliquid main dex (no hip3 cost/liq heatmap);
@@ -540,8 +541,8 @@ export function TerminalDashboard({
         </div>
         <div className="tm-rule" />
 
-        {/* market net inflow (Vergex) · by-symbol history — balanced two-column footer */}
-        <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: 'minmax(0,1.5fr) minmax(0,1fr)' }}>
+        {/* market net inflow (Vergex) · by-symbol history · edge profile — footer */}
+        <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: 'minmax(0,1.2fr) minmax(0,0.9fr) minmax(0,0.9fr)' }}>
           <div style={{ ...sc, borderRight: cellBorder }}>
             <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'baseline', gap: 10, marginBottom: 8 }}>
               <span className="tm-px" style={{ fontSize: 12 }}>Market net inflow</span>
@@ -550,7 +551,7 @@ export function TerminalDashboard({
             </div>
             <FlowMarkets items={flowItems} window={flow?.data?.window} />
           </div>
-          <div style={sc}>
+          <div style={{ ...sc, borderRight: cellBorder }}>
             <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'baseline', gap: 8, marginBottom: 8 }}>
               <span className="tm-px" style={{ fontSize: 11 }}>By symbol</span>
               <span className="tm-sc">By-symbol history · trades/win/pnl</span>
@@ -568,6 +569,13 @@ export function TerminalDashboard({
               </div>
             )) : <div className="tm-sc">No symbol history.</div>}
           </div>
+          <div style={sc}>
+            <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'baseline', gap: 8, marginBottom: 8 }}>
+              <span className="tm-px" style={{ fontSize: 11 }}>Edge profile</span>
+              <span className="tm-sc">Net by hold time &amp; side · after fees</span>
+            </div>
+            <EdgeProfile positions={history?.positions} />
+          </div>
         </div>
       </div>
     </div>

web/src/components/trader/PositionHistory.tsx

@@ -36,9 +36,9 @@ function formatDuration(minutes: number): string {
 }
 
 // Format date
-function formatDate(dateStr: string): string {
-  if (!dateStr) return '-'
-  const date = new Date(dateStr)
+function formatDate(value: number | string): string {
+  if (!value) return '-'
+  const date = new Date(value)
   if (isNaN(date.getTime())) return '-'
   return date.toLocaleDateString('zh-CN', {
     month: '2-digit',

web/src/types/trading.ts

@@ -186,10 +186,12 @@ export interface HistoricalPosition {
   entry_quantity: number
   entry_price: number
   entry_order_id: string
-  entry_time: string
+  /** Epoch milliseconds. */
+  entry_time: number
   exit_price: number
   exit_order_id: string
-  exit_time: string
+  /** Epoch milliseconds. */
+  exit_time: number
   realized_pnl: number
   fee: number
   leverage: number